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Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta important news. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta important news. Mostrar todas las entradas

Analyzing Ford's Return on Equity (ROE)

Finanzas: Noticias.
By Jeremiah Strider | December 10, 2015


Ford ’s (NYSE: F) recent return on equity (ROE) tells investors that the company is creating measurable net income for its stockholders. Although Ford may have been the only auto manufacturer that did not take government bailout dollars during the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, it nonetheless suffered significantly during those years. In fact, like the other large U.S. automakers, Ford’s equity balance was substantially below zero during those years and the years that followed. Essentially, the company owed more than its assets were worth; therefore, there was no shareholders' equity on the balance sheet. That negative equity, along with several years of net operating losses, made the company's ROE unsuitable to consider for several years. There simply cannot be a return on shareholders' equity when there is no equity. In 2011, Ford's shareholder equity and ROE turned positive, ending at 281.62%, a number that was skewed by the equity balance being extremely low and having the highest annual net income for the past 10 years at $20.3 billion.

Recent Three Years

For the most recent three calendar years of 2012 to 2014, Ford's ROE has been 36.58%, 33.81% and 12.45% respectively. Net income during those same years was $5.6 billion, $7.2 billion and $3.2 billion respectively. The ROE does not correlate to the net income trend because Ford also raised its dividend during each of those years: from 0 in 2011, gradually increasing up to 50 cents per share by the end of 2014. While this is generally viewed as a sign of strength to investors, it may skew the equity calculations and make the yearly ROE difficult to compare. Ford has also bought back a small portion of company shares during recent years, decreasing shares outstanding from 4.1 billion in 2011 to 4 billion in 2014.

Comparison to Competition

Ford Motor Company, ’s largest domestic competitor in the highly consolidated automotive manufacturing industry is General Motors, which also experienced years of negative shareholder equity during the economic downturn but returned to positive figures in 2010. During the same most recent three-year period of 2012 to 2014, GM's ROE has been 18.14%, 11.54% and 7.48% respectively. Net income during those same years was $6.1 billion, $5.3 billion and $3.9 billion respectively. GM returned to paying dividends in 2014 after several years of none, paying an average of $1.20 per share that year. GM's shares outstanding has remained relatively level during recent years with no major share repurchases or new share issuance.
The two companies are relatively close in overall size; GM generates more annual revenue than Ford, but Ford has more overall assets than GM. Ford also has carried more long-term debt than GM in recent years. Both companies' ROEs indicates that they have returned to more stable economic footing and that they are beginning to reward shareholders reliably for their investments through dividends. Both companies' stock prices have also recovered from severe lows during the economic recession.

Other Considerations

The amount of new debt a company takes on is often a factor that an investor should consider in addition to an ROE analysis. Although Ford carries a higher amount of debt compared to its competition, it has not substantially increased that debt in the last three years. This indicates that its capital needs are not being met via debt financing, which often skews an ROE analysis.
Ford’s annual revenues have returned to their highest level since the recession, but they are still substantially lower than annual revenues before the recession. However, it appears as though the company is learning how to manage its assets and shareholders' equity at this new level as demonstrated by the return to positive ROE figures posted in each of the past three calendar years.




Mortgage Rates Highest in a Week Ahead of Retail Sales Report

Dec 10 2015, 5:21PM

Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today, bringing them to the worst levels in exactly one week.  That said, the movement over that time has been minimal overall--not even enough to affect contract rates.  In other words, you would likely have seen the same interest rate on any quote during the past 5 days.  The changes in "rates" would instead be driven by the changes in the upfront costs.  Taking these closing costs into consideration allows us to observe changes in mortgage cost on a smaller scale (sometimes referred to as "effective rate).  The most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate remains 4.0%, though fewer lenders are quoting 3.875% today.
With next week's Fed Announcement being the biggest item on the near-term calendar, none of the recent economic data or events have been important enough to be of much concern.  One of the only possible exceptions will be tomorrow morning's Retail Sales data.  While it certainly won't deter the Fed from its likely hike next week (and while it may not even have much of an effect at all), it at least stands a chance to have some small impact on the short term path for mortgage rates.
Even then, the bigger picture is now more important than the short term path.  With the Fed hike being a relatively foregone conclusion, investors are now turning their thoughts not only to the rate hike outlook for 2016, but to the general state of the economy both at home and abroad.  Reports like Retail Sales can help shape that bigger picture outlook, and that can (and will) do just as much to inform mortgage rates as the volatility surrounding Fed policy.  In other words, if Retail Sales are weak, mortgage rates can still improve even though the Fed is hiking next week.


Loan Originator Perspective

"The hoped for post supply rally didn't happen today.   Rates continue to be range bound and the risk at this time is a break to higher yields.   That said, I think it may be wise to lock in today.  With the Fed decision on a rate hike in a week or so, I do not see anything that would cause rates to break through the current floor other than some new tapebomb such as a terror attack, increased QE in Europe, etc..." -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage
"Rates were largely unchanged today, as both treasury and MBS prices hovered in recent ranges.  The Fed's looming overnight rate interest hike is priced into markets, and I see little motivation for rates to change dramatically up/down, given oil's continued bear market.  It's tough for anyone to be concerned about inflation (which is bonds' archenemy) when oil is trading at multi-year lows.  The lock/float decision in times like this boils down to "do we wait and hope your lender credit rises slightly (knowing full well it might drop instead), or do we lock and concentrate on packing?"  I'm 50/50 lock/float now for new files, but only with the caveat that huge gains are highly unlikely." -Ted Rood, Senior Originator


Today's Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 4.0%
  • FHA/VA - 3.75%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.25%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • 2015 has been largely about rates rising unevenly from a long-term low brought about by the onset of quantitative easing in Europe.  In May and June, the Fed increasingly began telegraphing a 2015 rate hike.  At that point, the "rising rate environment" seemed like a sure thing, but the Fed's plans hit several snags.  Economic data began deteriorating at home and abroad, causing markets to rethink the higher rate rhetoric.  Mortgage rates hit 6 month lows at the end of October, just as the Fed surprisingly changed it's policy statement to specifically suggest December as a rate hike possibility (something they haven't done since 1999).
  • In the bigger picture, rates had been at a crossroads, trying to determine if they would move back to 2015 highs or if the late summer swoon was merely the first wave of a longer campaign. 

  • While there is still plenty of room to be concerned about increasingly weak global economic growth, that's not a solid enough reason to float in this environment.  With the Fed almost certainly on track for a December rate hike, there is much  more risk that rates move quickly higher vs quickly lower.  The big picture global malaise can serve as the basis for long term hope, but in the short term, assume upward pressure on rates when formulating your strategy.

  • As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution(that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators

Is Miami in a housing bubble?

Real estate company Zillow polled housing experts
They said Miami doesn’t need to worry as much as San Francisco and New York


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article48884525.html#storylink=cpy



4 reasons 2016 is the year to buy a home

  @KathrynVasel

If you've been on the fence about buying a home, 2016 is the year to take the plunge.

Mortgage rates have been bouncing around record lows for a while now. But even though they're likely to start going up, you haven't missed your chance to get a deal on a house.
A number of factors are coming together, making next year a good time to buy:

1. Home prices will finally calm down

Real estate values have been on the rise for a while, but are likely to slow their pace next year. Prices are expected to rise 3.5%, according to Zillow's Chief Economist Svenja Gudell.
Buyers who've been stuck behind the wave of rising prices may finally get the chance to jump in.
And that could lead to a flood of buyers, said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Realtor.com.
"We have the potential for about six million home sales just through the months of April through September; that is basically impossible to do," he said.
But not everyone will be in a position to take advantage.
Despite the slowdown, Zillow still expects home values to outpace wage growth, which can make it tough to afford a home, especially for lower-income buyers.
Plus, prices in the country's hottest markets -- like San Francisco, Boston and New York City -- aren't expected to pull back as much next year.

2. More homes will hit the market

The slowdown in home prices will prompt more owners to list their homes, Smoke said, giving buyers more choice.
"Because of the price appreciation they have experienced, you will have more sellers put homes on the market next year," he said.
The new home market is also expected to grow in the coming year with builders focusing more on starter and middle-range homes, which will also boost inventory and make it easier for buyers.
With more homes on the market, bidding wars will become less common and prices could ease even more.

3. Dirt cheap mortgages could disappear

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin increasing interest rates soon, which means the window for record low mortgage rates is closing.
While rates are expected to go up gradually, higher rates push up borrowing costs and monthly mortgage payments.
"You are likely to get the best rate you will possibly see, perhaps in your lifetimes through the majority of next year, but certainly, the earlier the better," said Smoke.

4. Rents will still hurt

Rent prices are expected to continue to climb in the new year, which means in most cities, buying will be cheaper than renting.
Even though mortgages could get more expensive, buying might still be the better deal.
Interest rates would need to rise to around 6.5% for the cost of buying to equal that of renting on a national level, according to Ralph McLaughlin, housing economist at Trulia.
CNNMoney (New York) December 4, 2015: 9:24 AM ET